The diplomatic
rupture with Iran triggered by the execution of a Shi'ite cleric was
probably a side effect of a decision taken by Saudi Arabia for domestic
reasons, rather than the outcome of a deliberate ploy to enrage its
regional opponent.
But
whether or not they intended to raise the heat in a tense rivalry that
already underpins wars across the Middle East, Saudi Arabia's new rulers
have shown no sign of regret.
Deputy
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also defense minister,
reassured the world on Thursday the crisis would stop short of an
all-out war between the Gulf region's main powers.
"A
war between Saudi Arabia and Iran is the beginning of a major
catastrophe in the region, and it will reflect very strongly on the rest
of the world. For sure we will not allow any such thing," he told the
Economist.
But in the days since
the execution, Riyadh has done nothing to halt an escalation in
confrontation, demonstrating a level of comfort with brinkmanship
unheard of in the typically cautious kingdom before King Abdullah died a
year ago and was replaced by his brother King Salman.
The
night after a Saudi executioner put Shi'ite Muslim cleric Nimr al-Nimr
to death in a high-security prison, Iranian protesters stormed Riyadh's
Tehran embassy and Mashhad consulate. Riyadh responded by cutting off
diplomatic ties.
"I do not think
this would have happened under King Abdullah. Either the executions or
the cutting of relations," said a Saudi political analyst, who spoke on
condition of anonymity in an absolute monarchy where publicly
questioning rulers' decisions is taboo.
"I
personally wish they had only withdrawn the ambassador. It makes it
less difficult to change later," the analyst said of the decision to cut
diplomatic ties.
Salman, the sixth
brother to rule as king since 1953, has set in motion the first transfer
of power to a new generation for six decades, appointing his nephew
Mohammed bin Nayef as crown prince and his own son Mohammed bin Salman
as deputy.
Saudis say the rupture with Iran is the latest evidence that the new rulers are less hesitant to act than their predecessors.
Sources
close to the Riyadh authorities say the stormings of the diplomatic
buildings in Iran came as a surprise, even though such attacks are
hardly unprecedented: the British embassy in Tehran was torched in 2011
and one Saudi diplomat was killed in a similar attack in 1988.
Nevertheless,
one well-connected Saudi said that while he did not believe the Saudi
rulers expected the embassy attack, they would have been willing to risk
Iranian reprisals to carry out an execution they believed was fully
justified.
"The mood with the
government is to push back against Iranian encroachment. So if Iran
tries to intervene in a domestic matter, it's complete anathema," the
Saudi said. He added that Iranian threats may even have made Riyadh more
determined to go ahead with Nimr's execution.
"It's
a Saudi citizen convicted of crimes in Saudi Arabia. They think 'we
will not take international, and especially Iranian, opinion into
consideration.'"
RUPTURE FOLLOWS STEPS TOWARDS THAW
King Salman and the
two princes have taken aggressive steps over the past year to confront
what they see as growing Iranian influence in the Middle East - going to
war in neighboring Yemen to halt a takeover by Shi'ite rebels they
consider Iranian pawns, and increasing support for rebel groups fighting
against Iran's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Nevertheless,
many in Riyadh insist the government was not trying to pick a new fight
with Iran by executing Nimr, a cleric Riyadh had long accused of
stirring up unrest, and who was executed along with dozens of Sunni
Muslims also accused of terrorism.
They
point to a series of steps Riyadh had taken in recent months towards a
thaw with Tehran, including working hard to get a new ambassador
approved in Iran after a months-long hiatus, opening a new embassy in
Shi'ite-ruled Iraq, and sitting opposite Iran at Syria peace talks last
month in New York.
Saudi
officials say that by taking offense at the execution of Nimr, Tehran
has demonstrated its claim of dominion over all Shi'ites regardless of
national borders, which Riyadh in turn calls a fundamental threat to the
international system.
Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir this week told Reuters Iran needed to decide if it was a normal nation state or "a revolution".