With Nigeria's economy
struggling and insecurity rife, four top presidential candidates start
campaigning this week for next February's election in an open race to replace
President Muhammadu Buhari.
Less than five months before the ballot, no clear frontrunner
has emerged with major candidates all confronting challenges on their path to
the top political seat in Africa's most populous country.
After two terms, Buhari steps down with Nigeria battling high
inflation, oil production at record lows and security forces battling
jihadists, separatist gunmen and criminal gangs across the country.
Top candidates lining up are Bola Tinubu, a former Lagos
governor and stalwart of the ruling All Progressives Congress or APC and
opposition Peoples Democratic Party or PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar, a former
vice president on his sixth bid.
Two other candidates are challenging the dominance of the APC
and PDP: Peter Obi, a former state governor generating a following among young
Nigerians and another ex-state governor and former minister Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Campaigning starts officially on Wednesday, but five months is
an unusually long time for Nigeria, analysts say, increasing risks that party
infighting and the north-south ethnic and religious divides will complicate the
election buildup.
Since returning to democracy after military rule in 1999,
Nigerian elections have been marked by violence, delays, fraud claims and court
challenges.
Voter turnout has also been generally low in Nigeria -- 33
percent in 2019 -- and the two main parties have fielded older candidates seen
by many younger Nigerians as offering little change.
That has left room for third party candidates to tap into
growing anti-establishment feeling in what analysts see as a highly competitive
electoral race.
There are 18 presidential candidates, including one woman.
Voters will also elect Senate and Congress lawmakers in the February 25 ballot.
"Unlike the previous six election cycles, the 2023 vote is
not likely to be the usual two-horse race," said Dapo Thomas, history and
political science teacher at Lagos university.
Divisions
and splits
Nigeria's constitution requires candidates to win a simple
majority and 25 percent of the vote in two-thirds of the country, a nod to the
ethnic and religious makeup.
North Nigeria is predominantly Muslim, the south is mostly
Christain and there are more than 200 ethnicities, the largest being Yoruba,
Hausa/Fulani and Igbo.
In an unwritten, power-sharing agreement known as
"zoning", the presidency has also traditionally rotated between north
and south.
After two terms under Buhari, a Muslim from the northwest, it
was widely expected major parties would select a presidential candidate from
the south.
But the PDP broke with zoning by naming Abubakar, a northern
Muslim. APC also broke with practice by going with a Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Tinubu is a southern Muslim and his vice president candidate Kashim Shettima is
also a Muslim.
The APC says Tinubu's time as Lagos governor shows his political
experience. But the ruling party must contend with discontent over management
of the economy and tensions over its Muslim-only candidates.
"Strong anti-establishment sentiment will lend opposition
candidates Atiku and Obi strong momentum at the start," Eurasia Group said
in a research note.
PDP's team says Abubakar has the public office experience and
the business acumen to tackle Nigeria's economy.
But the PDP is struggling with a major split. Abubakar's victory
has upset a core part of southern supporters, including Rivers State governor
Nyesom Wike, an influential PDP stakeholder who has broken ranks.
PDP and APC "are dealing with quasi existential issues of
their own, and important political and vote mobilisation blocks which are disaffected,"
SBM Intelligence analyst Ikemesit Effiong said.
Obi's campaign hopes their candidate can keep up his early
momentum as an alternative. But his Labour Party does not have the political
structure to match the APC and PDP nationwide.
"The 2023 general election will be a really difficult but
seminal point in Nigeria's evolving experiment with democracy," SBM's
Effiong said.
"It has the hallmarks of ending well or ending really
badly."